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Future of the Italian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019
Publication Date Feb 2014
Publisher Strategic Defence Intelligence
Product Type Report
Pages 137
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Product Synopsis
This report is the result of SDI's extensive market and company research covering the Italian defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
The Future of the Italian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts to 2019 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the Italian defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
Italy which is one of the largest defense spenders in Europe and tenth largest spender in the world is projected to spend US$147.2 billion on its armed forces during the forecast period. In 2014, the Italian government allocated US$27.67 billion for the total defense budget which recorded a CAGR of 5.18% during 2010 to 2014. Defense expenditure is inclusive of the expenditure on the defense function, homeland security, and other expenses. Italian defense expenditure is primarily driven by increasing terrorist threats, participation in peacekeeping initiatives, replacing the ageing military equipment, and the modernization of defense forces with advanced technology equipment. The defense function stood at US$19.13 billion in 2014 and is expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.09% during the forecast period, to reach US$22.32 billion in 2019. Capital expenditure will also see a marginal increase which is anticipated to grow at 5.16% due to the country's heavy procurement pattern during the forecast period. The Italian defense industry is expected to focus on modernization of the armed forces by implementing various procurement programs that include F-35 Joint Strike Fighter project. Typhoon multirole combat aircraft, FREMM frigates, NH 90 helicopters, and Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) program

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
Modernization of defense systems, participation in peacekeeping initiatives, and maintaining NATO, EU and UN stipulations expected to drive the Italian defense expenditure

What makes this report unique and essential to read?
The Future of the Italian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts to 2019 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2015 to 2019, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits
The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2015 to 2019, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Italian defense industry.

The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.

The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.

The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Italy. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues
As per the SDI's business outlook survey, 84% of the European respondents have quoted that the biggest concern for the defense industry in the coming 5 years are the impending global defense budget cuts. The economic crisis in Italy and across Europe has led to reductions in the defense budgets of many countries, including France, Greece and Poland, which are some of the top importing countries of Italian defense products. The cuts will decrease the procurement expenditure of these countries and have a negative impact on the order book of the Italian defense industry. The key procurement cutbacks made by Italy's own MOD include:

As a member of the EU, the Italian government has a policy to give priority to European-manufactured defense goods, which makes it more difficult for non-European defense companies to supply to the Italian defense market. The high capability of, and the prohibition of foreign direct investment in, the defense industry further reduces the scope for non-European defense companies. Moreover, the participation of the domestic defense industry in international development programs helps the domestic defense industry to acquire advanced technologies, which further narrows the opportunities for foreign firms keen to enter the market through technology transfers.

Key Highlights
The country's defense budget declined during 2010 to 2014 due to various austerity measures implemented by the government, however, the country's procurement plans still remain ambitious and the government is keen to continue modernization albeit at a slower pace. For example: In 2012, Italy's initial procurement of 131 F-35 fighter jets was reduced to 90 aircraft. The country is anticipated to spend US$16 billion over the procurement of the aircrafts which include F-35 fighter and Eurofighter Typhoon over 45 years starting in 2015. Further; the Italian Navy has also obtained funding for building 10 naval vessels consisting of eight multipurpose ships, one amphibious ship and a logistics vessel over the next decade. The multipurpose ships are procured for combat purposes and to support humanitarian relief operations. Additionally to replace its ageing Fincantieri-built Lupo and Maestrale-class ships, Italy has undertaken the FREMM multi-mission ship program in collaboration with France to build 10 frigates to be delivered by 2022. The vessels will be equipped with the SAAM Aster 15 missile system, Teseo Mk2 sea-skimming anti-ship missiles to support anti-submarine warfare and anti-air warfare missions.

A rise in the number of internal security threats, terrorist attacks, the emergence of home-grown insurgency networks, a number of anarchist groups active in the country are factors driving homeland security expenditure in the country. Terrorist threats: Terrorism is a growing problem in the Italy and the government is increasing its efforts to dismantle terrorist-related groups within its borders, and maintain cooperation with international partners in this aspect. In January 2014, the Italian Olympics committee has received a terrorist threat concerning the Games due to start next month in Sochi, Russia. Further in 2013, the Italian police department arrested a group of Tunisian men who were creating an Islamic militant cell in the Southern Italian town. In 2009, the Italian government investigated 216 terror threats against the country, including the bombing of a northern police barrack in October. Italy perceives Islamist organizations, such as Al-Qaeda, as the biggest threat to its internal security. Italy is working closing with the US on countering terrorist financing and coordinating with other foreign participants as an active member of the Financial Action Task Force and the Egmont Group. Additionally Italy is a founding member of the Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCF), which is a multilateral platform focusing on addressing the challenges of counterterrorism.

Italian defense exports have increased significantly over 2010 to 2014 due to the various joint development programs such as the Joint Strike Fighter, Horizon-class Frigates programs, Eurofighter typhoon and the FREMM program etc. In addition, the Italian defense industry has collaborated with several other equipment manufacturers thereby boosting its export after the recession. Italy was the seventh largest exporter of arms over 2010 to 2014. However, in the forecast period, defense exports are expected to decline further due to the defense budget cuts of most European countries, such as France and Greece, which are the major defense trading partners of Italy. With the expansion of growing BRIC markets like India and Brazil the demand for defense goods is expected to be strong and Italy is expected to experience overall exports growth during the forecast period.


Companies Mentioned

KADDB

1 Introduction
1.1 What is this Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Summary Methodology
1.4 SDI Terrorism Index
1.5 About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Italian annual defense function expenditure valued US$14.61 billion in 2014
3.1.2. Modernization of defense systems, participation in peacekeeping initiatives, and maintaining NATO, EU and UN stipulations expected to drive the Italian defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 1.47% during the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. The majority of Italy's defense budget is allocated for revenue expenditure
3.2.2. Overall capital expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.16% during the forecast period
3.2.3. The Italian Common Services leads the defense function budget allocation list, with 35.3% share during 2010 to 2014
3.2.4. Army expenditure expected to reach US$6.51 billion by 2019
3.2.5. Air force expenditure expected to grow from US$3.55 to US$4.34 billion during forecast period
3.2.6. Cumulative navy expenditure expected to reach US15.83 billion during the forecast period
3.2.7. Common services expenditure is expected to cumulatively spend US$36.49 billion during forecast period…
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure expected to grow from US$7.72 billion to US$8.22 billion during forecast period
3.3.2. Homeland security expenditure in Italy is mainly driven by activities such as terrorism in the country, mafia wars, and rising anarchist groups
3.3.3. SDI Terrorism Index rates Italy to be a “some risk” region
3.3.4. Italy has a score of 0.1 on the SDI Research Intelligence Terrorism Index
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Italian defense expenditure expected to increase marginally over the forecast period
3.4.2. Italy has the tenth largest defense budget in the world
3.4.3. Italy expected to spend an average of 1.23% of its GDP on defense over the forecast period
3.4.4. Italy faces “some risk” by acts of terrorism
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.5.1. Fighters and Multi-role aircraft
3.5.2. Frigates
3.5.3. Transport and Utility Helicopter
3.5.4. C4ISR Airborne
3.5.5. Counter Terrorism
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Arms imports expected to revive during the forecast period
4.1.2. European countries such as Germany and UK have entered in the import market in competition with the US……
4.1.3. Aircraft, missiles and sensors were the key defense imports during 2008-2012
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Development of domestic defense capability is expected to fuel exports in Italy's emerging military industry
4.2.2. Asian to account for a major portion of Italian defense exports
4.2.3. Aircraft was the main exported defense product during 2008-2012
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: low
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Italian defense industry is largely driven by government regulation and policy
6.1.2. Restrictive defense policies to prevent increase in foreign investment
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Technology transfer provides good market entry opportunities
6.2.2. Research and development collaborations offer market access
6.2.3. Joint ventures, partnerships and licensing agreements are key market entry strategies in Italy
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Defense budget cuts across Europe challenge domestic defense companies
6.3.2. Restrictive foreign policy poses a challenge for non-European companies to enter the Italian defense industry
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Finmeccanica: overview
7.2.2. Finmeccanica: products and services
7.2.3. Finmeccanica: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Finmeccanica: alliances
7.2.5. Finmeccanica: recent contract wins
7.2.6. Finmeccanica: financial analysis
7.2.7. Selex ES: overview
7.2.8. Selex ES: products and services
7.2.9. Selex ES: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.10. Selex ES: alliances
7.2.11. Selex ES: recent contract wins
7.2.12. Oto Melara: overview
7.2.13. Oto Melara: products and services
7.2.14. Oto Melara: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.15. Oto Melara: alliances
7.2.16. Oto Melara: recent contract wins
7.2.17. Fincantieri: overview
7.2.18. Fincantieri: defense products
7.2.19. Fincantieri: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.20. Fincantieri: alliances
7.2.21. Fincantieri: recent contract wins
7.2.22. Fincantieri: financial analysis
7.2.23. MBDA: overview
7.2.24. MBDA: defense products
7.2.25. MBDA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.26. MBDA: alliances
7.2.27. MBDA: recent contract wins
7.2.28. WASS: overview
7.2.29. WASS: products and services
7.2.30. WASS: alliances
7.2.31. WASS: recent contract wins
7.3. Key Private Companies
7.3.1. Elettronica: overview
7.3.2. Elettronica: products and services
7.3.3. Elettronica: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.4. Elettronica: alliances
7.3.5. Elettronica: recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Rural
8.1.2. Population - Urban
8.1.3. Population - Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per USD
8.2.10. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
8.2.11. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.2.12. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit (LCU bn)
8.2.13. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.14. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.15. Goods balance as a % of GDP
8.2.16. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.17. Services Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Services balance(% of GDP)
8.2.19. Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ bn)
8.2.20. Net FDI as a % of GDP
8.2.21. International reserves, including Gold (US$ bn)
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Bn KWH)
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWh)
8.3.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation(Billion kWh)
8.3.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity(Million kW)
8.3.5. Proved reserves of Natural Gas(Trillion Cubic Feet)
8.3.6. Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day)
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Rail lines (total route km)
8.4.2. Air transport, freight (Million ton-km)
8.4.3. Overall Construction (US$ million)
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion)
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Research and development expenditure (thousands LCU)
8.6.2. Patents Granted
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone lines (in mn)
8.7.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people)
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Table 2: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion),2015-2019
Table 3: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2010-2014
Table 4: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2019
Table 5: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010-2014
Table 6: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2019
Table 7: Italian Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2010-2014
Table 8: Italian Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2015-2019
Table 9: Italian Defense Expenditure Split (%), 2010-2014
Table 10: Italian Defense Expenditure Split (%), 2015-2019
Table 11: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Table 12: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Table 13: Italian Air Force Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Table 14: Italian Air Force Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Table 15: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Table 16: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Table 17: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Table 18: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Table 19: Italian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2010-2014
Table 20: Italian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015-2019
Table 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2010-2014 vs. 2015-2019
Table 22: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 23: Offset Regulations in Italy
Table 24: Italian Joint Development Programs for Missile Defense Systems
Table 25: Finmeccanica - Product Focus
Table 26: Finmeccanica - Alliances
Table 27: Finmeccanica- Recent Contract Wins
Table 28: Selex ES- Product Focus
Table 29: Selex ES - Alliances
Table 30: Selex ES - Recent Contract Wins
Table 31: Oto Melara - Product Focus
Table 32: Oto Melara - Alliances
Table 33: Oto Melara - Recent Contract Wins
Table 34: Fincantieri - Product Focus
Table 35: Fincantieri - Alliances
Table 36: Fincantieri - Recent Contract Wins
Table 37: MBDA - Product Focus
Table 38: MBDA - Alliances
Table 39: MBDA - Recent Contract Wins
Table 40: WASS - Product Focus
Table 41: WASS - Alliances
Table 42: WASS - Recent Contract Wins
Table 43: Elettronica - Product Focus
Table 44: Elettronica - Alliances
Table 45: Elettronica - Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures
Figure 1: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion),2010-2014
Figure 2: Italian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 3: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2010-2014
Figure 4: Italian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2019
Figure 5:Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010-2014
Figure 6: Italian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2019
Figure 7: Italian Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2010-2014
Figure 8: Italian Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2015-2019
Figure 9: Italian Defense Expenditure Allocation (US$ billion), 2010-2014
Figure 10: Italian Defense Expenditure Allocation (US$ billion), 2015-2019
Figure 11: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 12: Italian Army Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 13: Italian Air force Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 14: Italian Air Force Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 15: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 16: Italian Navy Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 17: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 18: Italian Common Services Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 19: Italian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2010-2014
Figure 20: Italian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015-2019
Figure 21: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2014
Figure 22: SDI Terrorism Index, 2014
Figure 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2010-2014 vs. 2015-2019
Figure 24: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2014 and 2019
Figure 25: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2014
Figure 26: Fighters and Multi-Role Aircraft (US$ Million), 2014-2024
Figure 27: Frigates Market (US$ Million), 2014-2024
Figure 28: Transport and Utility Aircraft (US$ Million), 2014-2024
Figure 29:C4ISR Airborne (US$ Million), 2014-2024
Figure 30: Counter Terrorism (US$ Million), 2014-2024
Figure 31: Italian Defense Import Trend, 2008-2012 (TIV values)
Figure 32: Italian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2008-2012
Figure 33: Italian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2008-2012
Figure 34: Italian Defense Exports By Value (US$ million), 2008-2012
Figure 35: Italian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2008-2012
Figure 36: Italian Defense Exports by Category (%),2008-2012
Figure 37: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 38: Finmeccanica- Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2008-2012
Figure 39: Finmeccanica- Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2008-2012
Figure 40: Finmeccanica- Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2008-2012
Figure 41: Fincantieri - Revenue Trend Analysis (Euro Million), 2008-2012
Figure 42: Fincantieri - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (Euro Million), 2008-2012
Figure 43: Fincantieri - Net Profit Trend Analysis (Euro Million), 2008-2012
Figure 44: Italy Population - Rural (In Millions), 2010-2019
Figure 45: Italy Population - Urban (In Millions), 2010-2019
Figure 46: Italy Population - Number of Households (In Millions), 2009-2018
Figure 47: Italy GDP per capita, 2010-2019
Figure 48: Italy Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Mn), 2010-2019
Figure 49: Italy Exports of goods and services (current US$ Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 50: Italy Imports of goods and services (current US$ Bn), 2002-2011
Figure 51: Italy Gross national disposable income (US$ Bn), 2003 - 2012
Figure 52: Italy Manufacturing Output (US$ Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 53: Italy Consumer Price Index, 2009-2018
Figure 54: Italy Wholesale Price Index, 2003-2012
Figure 55: Italy LCU per US$, 2009-2018
Figure 56: Italy Market Capitalization of listed Companies (US$ Bn), 2003-2012
Figure 57: Italy Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 58: Italy Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn), 2001-2010
Figure 59: Italy Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 60: Italy Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 61: Italy Goods balance as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 62: Italy Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 63: Italy Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 64: Italy Services balance as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 65: Italy Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ bn), 2004-2013
Figure 66: Italy Net FDI as a % of GDP, 2004-2013
Figure 67: Italy International reserves, including Gold (US$ Bn), 2004-2013
Figure 68: Italy Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Bn KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 69: Italy Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Bn KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 70: Italy Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Bn KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 71: Italy Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2003-2012
Figure 72: Italy Proved reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic feet), 2004-2013
Figure 73: Italy Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2004-2013
Figure 74: Italy Rail lines (Total route Km), 2003-2012
Figure 75: Italy Air transport, freight (Million ton-Km), 2003-2012
Figure 76: Italy Overall Construction (US$ Bn), 2008-2017
Figure 77: Italy Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(US$ Bn), 2004-2013
Figure 78: Italy Research and Development (thousands LCU), 2002-2011
Figure 79: Italy Patents Granted, 2004-2013
Figure 80: Italy Telephone lines (in mn), 2003-2012
Figure 81: Italy Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2003-2012

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