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Brazil Shipping Report Q3 2014
Publication Date Jun 2014
Publisher Business Monitor International
Product Type Report
Single User License help $ N/A
 

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BMI View: We believe that Brazil's economic recovery will falter this year, and are revising down our 2014
real GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.0%, below our 2013 estimate of 2.3% growth. Indeed, further
monetary tightening, significant exchange rate weakness and ongoing project delays in the infrastructure
sector will negatively impact both the private consumption and fixed investment components, weighing on
headline growth.
Signs of weakening high frequency data in late 2013 and early 2014, the prospect of more significant
monetary tightening this year, as well as ongoing project delays in the infrastructure sector, underpin our
decision to downgrade our 2014 real GDP growth forecast for Brazil from 2.4% to 2.0%. Indeed, after
ticking up throughout most of Q213 and Q313, the country's services and composite purchasing managers'
indices began to head lower in Q413, which we expect to weigh on economic activity in the first several
months of 2014. Similarly, we have seen consumer and business confidence data weaken as well, factors
that are likely to weigh on industrial production and retail sales going forward.






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