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Australia Renewables Report Q1 2015
Publication Date Nov 2014
Product Type Report
Pages 40
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BMI View: We are maintaining our 2015 forecasts for non-hydropower renewable generation and capacity
in Australia this quarter as we had previously incorporated the effects of a decrease in investment.
However, we are revising down our long-term forecasts due to continued political uncertainty and the
ongoing decline in new investments.
We are maintaining our 2015 growth forecast for non-hydropower renewable generation in Australia this
quarter at 8.7%. This is significantly lower than the five-year historical average growth rate of 11.7% and is
largely due to the uncertainty surrounding the renewable energy target (RET) since late-2013. We have
revised down our long-term forecasts this quarter on the back of continued political uncertainty and the
ongoing decline in new investments. We now forecast non-hydropower renewable capacity to grow at an
average rate of 4.3% per annum between 2015 and 2023.

BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 5
SWOT ................................................................................................................................... 6
Industry Forecast ................................................................................................................ 8
Australia Renewables Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................ 8
Table: Table: Australia Total Electricity Generation, Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Table: Table: Australia Total Electricity Generation, Long Term Forecasts, 2018-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table: Table: Australia Electricity Generating Capacity, Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Table: Table: Australia Electricity Generating Capacity, Long Term Forecasts, 2018-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Australia Renewables Projects Database ..................................................................................................... 17
Table: Major Projects - Renewables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Industry Risk Reward Index ............................................................................................. 21
Australia Renewables Risk/Reward Index ..................................................................................................... 21
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................. 21
Risks ................................................................................................................................................... 21
Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 23
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 23
Targets (Renewables And Emissions) ......................................................................................................... 23
Subsidies ............................................................................................................................................. 25
Table: Renewable Feed-In Tariffs In Australia, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Table: New Solar Credits Mechanism Multiplier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Infrastructure ....................................................................................................................................... 29
Competitive Landscape .................................................................................................... 30
Hydro Tasmania ................................................................................................................................... 30
AGL Energy ......................................................................................................................................... 31
Pacific Hydro ....................................................................................................................................... 31
Origin Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 32
Solar Systems ....................................................................................................................................... 32
Glossary ............................................................................................................................. 33
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 34
Methodology And Sources ......................................................................................................................... 34
Industry Forecast Methodology ................................................................................................................ 34
Sources ............................................................................................................................................... 36
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ............................................................................................................... 36
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Table: Weighting Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Title Date Price
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