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EpiCast Report: Atrial Fibrillation - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
Publication Date Feb 2015
Publisher GlobalData
Product Type Report
Pages 48
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EpiCast Report: Atrial Fibrillation - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a disorder of the heart’s electrical system. The condition is characterized by an irregular heart rhythm that is either too fast or too slow. During AF, the two upper chambers of the heart (atria) beat out of coordination with the two lower chambers (ventricles) due to disorganized electrical signals, resulting in poor blood supply to the lungs and the rest of the body. The symptoms of AF typically include heart palpitations, irregular and fast heartbeat, chest discomfort, shortness of breath, dizziness, and weakness. However, individuals with AF may be asymptomatic and not even know that they have the condition until it is identified through an electrocardiogram (EKG or ECG) test.

AF is one of the most common cardiovascular diseases among the elderly, worldwide. Although AF affects people of all ages, the condition is rare in individuals younger than 40 years of age. The risk for AF increases rapidly with age and is more common in men than women. Globally, the prevalence of AF varies widely, depending on the country and the study, ranging from 0.1-1.6% in Asia (0.1% in India, 1.6% in Japan), 0.95-3.9% in North America (0.95% in the US, 3.9% in Canada), 1.28-2.1% in Europe (1.28% in the UK, 2.1% in Germany), and 4.0% in Australia.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF in the 8MM will grow by 21.8% over the next decade, from 10,112,797 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2013 to 12,316,458 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2023.

GlobalData’s epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF in the 8MM is supported by epidemiologic data from country-specific studies that are nationally representative of the entire population in these markets. This analysis included the most recently published nationally-representative studies in the 8MM, which provided the diagnosed prevalence of AF using uniform diagnostic criteria based on EKG tests, which facilitated a meaningful comparison of the forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF in the 8MM.

Scope

- The Atrial Fibrillation (AF) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for AF in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF segmented by sex, age (in five-year age groups, beginning at 40 years and ending at =85 years), and clinical subtypes (paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF) in these markets.
- The AF epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global AF market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global AF market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for AF therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 6
2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
2.2 Related Reports 8
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 8
3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Disease Background 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
3.3 Global Trends 12
3.4 Forecast Methodology 14
3.4.1 Sources Used 16
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 22
3.4.3 Sources Not Used 27
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Atrial Fibrillation (2013-2023) 28
3.5.1 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation 28
3.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation 29
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation 31
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation 33
3.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation by Clinical Subtypes 35
3.6 Discussion 36
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 36
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 38
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 39
4 Appendix 40
4.1 Bibliography 40
4.2 About the Authors 44
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 44
4.2.2 Reviewers 44
4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 45
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 45
4.3 About GlobalData 46
4.4 About EpiCast 46
4.5 Disclaimer 47

List of Tables
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Clinical Subtypes of AF 9
Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AF 11
Table 3: Diagnosed Prevalence (%) of AF in the 6MM,* as Reported in Epidemiological Studies 12
Table 4: Total Prevalence (%) of AF in the 7MM,* as Reported in Epidemiological Studies 13
Table 5: 8MM, Sources of Prevalence Data Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF 15
Table 6: 8MM, Sources of AF Subtype Data Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF by Subtypes 16
Table 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages ?40 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013-2023 28
Table 8: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2013 30
Table 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, by Sex, Ages ?40 Years, N (Row %), 2013 32
Table 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, by Clinical Subtypes, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2013 35

List of Figures
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages ?40 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013-2023 29
Figure 2: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2013 31
Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, by Sex, Ages ?40 Years, N, 2013 33
Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence (%) of AF, by Sex, Ages ?40 Years, 2013 34
Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, by Clinical Subtypes, Both Sexes, N, 2013 36

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